Episode 10 · 55s
The TOP Effect — Why Condo Prices Peak at Completion
Property Phases 3 of 5: at completion everything peaks at once — immediate move-in, immediate rental, zero developer supply — and the same price shape shows up launch after launch.
Key takeaways
- 1
The most expensive day to buy a condo is often the day it's finished — the TOP effect.
- 2
At completion, demand is highest exactly when supply is lowest: immediate move-in, immediate rental income, nothing left from the developer.
- 3
Same shape every time: Jadescape (+16%), Stirling Residences (+22%) and Amber Park (+18%) all climbed into their TOP windows, then settled into slow market-rate growth (URA caveat trends).
- 4
The peak is a window, not a destination — it typically lasts roughly 1–3 years.
- 5
Owners who plan their exit sell into the peak; everyone else drifts past it.
Read the transcript+
The most expensive day to buy a condo is often the day it's finished. It's called the TOP effect. And it shows up launch after launch. Here's what drives it. At completion, everything peaks at once. Buyers can move in immediately. Tenants can sign immediately. The developer has nothing left to sell. Demand is highest exactly when supply is lowest. Look at three recent condos. One jumped around 16% into completion. The other two, same shape. Prices climb into TOP, then settle into slow market rate growth. So the peak is a window, not a destination. It lasts roughly one to three years. Owners who plan their exit sell into it. Everyone else drifts past it. Buy at phase one, exit around the peak. That's the discipline. Next video, the maturity trap that nobody warns you about.
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