Kenny's Take
Thomson Reserve's real number is in, and it's a reminder to always wait for the reconciled figure: 90.1% (1,143 of 1,268 units) at an average of $2,900 psf is still one of 2026's stronger launch weekends, but it's a notch below the ~99% that circulated on launch day itself. Every 3-bedroom and 4-bedroom unit, plus all 200 2-bedroom Premium + Study homes, are gone — only 123 standard 2-bedders and 2 five-bedroom suites remain for anyone still deciding. Meanwhile HDB is about to open its biggest BTO exercise ever, roughly 7,960 flats across seven projects from Bayshore to Chencharu, which matters most for upgraders weighing a ballot shot against buying resale now. And with condo rental vacancy sitting near the 6.5% ceiling and yields compressing into the 2.6–3.1% range, anyone underwriting a new purchase on rental income should model conservatively rather than off 2023-peak comparables.
🏗️ Thomson Reserve's Final Take-Up Confirmed At 90.1% — Correcting The Launch-Day 99% Figure
- Thomson Reserve's reconciled final numbers are in: 1,143 of 1,268 units (90.1%) sold over the 31 Oct–1 Nov launch weekend at an average of $2,900 psf — a meaningful step down from the ~99% day-one figure some outlets ran on launch night itself. It's still among the strongest results any Singapore new launch has posted in 2026, just not the near-total sellout the early headline suggested.
- Every 3-bedroom and 4-bedroom unit sold, along with all 200 of the 2-bedroom Premium + Study units — the project's biggest size tiers are gone. What's left is 123 standard 2-bedders and 2 five-bedroom suites, so anyone who assumed the whole project was spoken for based on the earlier 99% number should know there's still real inventory to look at.
🏘️ HDB's Largest-Ever BTO Exercise Opens This Week — ~7,960 Flats Across 7 Projects
- HDB's final Build-To-Order exercise of 2026 — pushed from October to November to give buyers time to apply under the newly raised income ceiling — is set to open within days with roughly 7,960 flats across seven projects in six towns: two at Bayshore (Bedok), Caldecott (Toa Payoh), Mattar (Geylang), Sembawang North, Garden Avenue (Tengah) and Chencharu (Yishun). By flat count, it's the largest single BTO launch on record.
- The income ceiling rose from $14,000 to $16,000 for families and $7,000 to $8,000 for eligible singles aged 35 and above from 24 Aug 2026, widening eligibility right before this exercise opens. For HDB upgraders timing their next move, a launch this large adds real optionality — more ballot chances now, and a bigger wave of flats reaching MOP from the early 2030s.
📉 Condo Rental Yields Keep Compressing As Vacancy Nears 6.5%
- Singapore's private condo rental market continues to rebalance: vacancy is holding near or above the 6.5% threshold that typically caps rental growth, and gross yields have compressed to roughly 2.6% (CCR) – 2.9% (RCR) – 3.1% (OCR), with median rents sitting an estimated 12–18% below 2023 peaks.
- For anyone buying a new launch partly on the strength of rental income — including Thomson Reserve buyers eyeing the 123 remaining 2-bedders — this is the moment to underwrite that income conservatively, using today's compressed yields rather than 2023-peak comparables.
🔭 What I'm Watching
- The exact open date for November's record BTO exercise — HDB has confirmed the month but not the specific day yet.
- Whether the outlets that ran Thomson Reserve's higher ~99% day-one figure correct it to the reconciled 90.1% (1,143/1,268) as the final numbers circulate more widely.