Kenny's Take
Today's HDB numbers are a good reminder that a soft price index and a cooling market are not the same thing. Resale prices eased just 0.1% in Q3, but transaction volume jumped 19.5% to 7,645 flats and million-dollar deals hit an all-time quarterly high of 596 — meaning more flats changed hands, at a wider range of price points, than at any point before. Toa Payoh led the million-dollar league table with 93 deals, which tracks with what I've seen on the ground: mature estates with thin new-launch supply keep pushing resale ceilings higher even when the headline index looks flat. If you're an upgrader sitting on a flat in a mature town, a flat price index with rising volume is actually the easier exit window — more buyers transacting means less time-on-market risk when you need that sale to fund the next purchase. Separately, keep an eye on the AI-driven office leasing story: when Anthropic and OpenAI start reshaping CBD rents, it's a sign capital is flowing into very specific pockets of the market, not lifting everything evenly.
🏘️ HDB Resale Prices Ease 0.1%, But Million-Dollar Deals Hit A Record 596
- URA's HDB resale price index slipped 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2026, but transaction volume told the opposite story — rising 19.5% to 7,645 flats, 5.9% above the same quarter last year. Million-dollar resale deals hit an all-time quarterly record of 596 transactions, now 7.8% of all resale activity at an average price of $1.16 million; year-to-date, 1,497 million-dollar flats have changed hands, up 20.4% versus the same period in 2025.
- The volume surge was broad across flat types: 4-room transactions led at 3,378 units (+21.0% QOQ), 5-room rose 26.7%, and Executive/Multi-Gen jumped 41.6%. [[Toa Payoh]] topped the million-dollar league table with 93 deals, ahead of [[Queenstown — Mature Estate HDB & Condo Market]] (86) and Bukit Merah (56) — all mature estates where thin new-launch supply keeps pushing resale ceilings higher.
🏢 AI Firms Push CBD Office Rents Up 2% — Fastest Pace Since 2022
- CBD Grade A office rents climbed 2% quarter-on-quarter to $12.75 psf/month in Q3 2026 — the strongest quarterly gain since 3Q2022 — as islandwide vacancy fell to 10%, the lowest since early 2024, and premium CBD vacancy tightened to 2.6% from 3.3%. Financial services led nine-month 2026 leasing demand at 29%, but AI companies stood out as a growth driver: Anthropic took 100 desks at Ocean Financial Centre, while OpenAI is reportedly in advanced talks for roughly 120,000 sq ft across five floors at Shaw Tower.
- Analysts are now pencilling in more than 5% full-year CBD Grade A rent growth for 2026, with only limited new office supply expected before 2028 — a setup that keeps landlords in AI-adjacent CBD buildings firmly in the driver's seat on rent negotiations.
🛍️ Retail Rents Rise 0.7%, But Occupied Space Shrinks For A Second Straight Quarter
- Singapore's Central Region retail rental index rose 0.7% quarter-on-quarter to 81.2 in Q3 2026, slightly ahead of Q2's 0.6% gain, even as occupied retail space contracted by 21,000 sq m — the second consecutive quarter of negative net absorption. Islandwide vacancy held flat at 7%, but the gains were concentrated: Tier-1 Orchard Road malls drove the rent increase while secondary locations lost ground, and Far East Organization is converting part of Orchard Central to office use from 1 December.
- The Outside Central Region was the lone bright spot on demand, with vacancy improving to 4.7% from 5.2% — a reminder that Singapore's retail market is increasingly two markets at once: a thriving prime-mall tier and a struggling secondary-location tier.