Kenny's Take
September's record 209 million-dollar HDB resales landed in the same week as data showing Singapore's $5 million-plus private home market just posted its second straight quarterly decline — and both numbers are telling buyers the same thing. Premium, well-located stock (Toa Payoh, Queenstown and Bedok alone produced 81 of those 209 HDB deals) keeps clearing at record prices in both the public and private markets, while the rest of each segment takes longer to transact. If you're deciding whether to sell a well-positioned HDB flat or hold prime private stock, that bifurcation — not the headline price index — is the number that should drive your timing. And with MAS's October policy statement just four days out, anyone still undecided on a fixed-rate lock-in should treat this week, not later in the month, as the real deadline.
🏘️ HDB Resale: A Record 209 Flats Crossed $1 Million in September
- A record 209 HDB resale flats changed hands for at least $1 million in September 2026 — 9.3% of the month's total resale volume, up from 201 such deals in August. Toa Payoh led with 33 of those sales, followed by Queenstown (28) and Bedok (20); together the three towns accounted for 81 of the 209.
- Overall HDB resale prices rose 0.6% month-on-month in September, though they remain 0.4% below year-ago levels — a market where buyers are still paying up for the right address even as the broader index takes its time to recover.
📊 $5M+ Home Sales Cool for a Second Straight Quarter
- Singapore's luxury home market ($5 million and above) posted 135 Core Central Region transactions in the third quarter of 2026 — down from 176 in Q2 and 193 in Q1 — with total transaction value falling 28.5% quarter-on-quarter to $1.29 billion, per Realion (OrangeTee & ETC) Research.
- The slowdown hasn't erased the year's momentum: 504 luxury homes have sold in the first nine months of 2026, still 10% ahead of the same period last year. This reads as a cooling pace, not a reversal.
🏛️ Canberra Drive EC's Record Bid Still Awaits Formal Award
- The record $825 psf ppr top bid for the Canberra Drive EC site remains formally unconfirmed nine days past its 1 October tender close. HDB continues to frame this as a pending evaluation on a record bid, not a result in doubt.
🏦 Rates — Four Days to MAS's Verdict
- Three-month compounded SORA continues to hold around 1.23% (7 October print: 1.2307%), unchanged from earlier in the week.
- MAS's October Monetary Policy Statement — due no later than 14 October — is now just four days away. Anyone weighing fixed versus floating on a new or refinanced loan should treat this week as the real decision point.
🔭 What I'm watching
- The Serra Residences' VVIP booking lands on 16 October (public day 17 October), and Thomson Reserve's preview opens in 7 days (17–27 October, booking 31 October) — both will be measured against Lucerne Grand's 61.4% launch-weekend benchmark.
- Canberra Drive EC's formal award is now 9 days overdue — worth flagging to EC-eligible clients as a process delay, not a signal the record bid is in trouble.