Kenny's Take
Developers' new home sales quadrupling to 731 units in July, up 368.8% month-on-month off June's two-year low, is the clearest volume signal since the school-holiday launch lull — buyers were sitting on the sidelines waiting for stock, not walking away from the market. That matters for how you read the HDB resale slowdown: a softening Q2 2026 resale price index alongside a still-climbing private market means upgraders' budgets are getting squeezed from both ends, and that conversation needs to start well before a listing goes on the market, not after an offer comes in. Grange Residences quietly setting a new $3,786 psf project record is worth knowing for prime-district clients, but treat it as a scarcity story at the very top of D10, not a signal for where OCR or RCR launches like Chuan Grove and Thomson Reserve will price this quarter. Put together, July's numbers are the strongest case yet that 2H 2026 demand is real and pent-up — the question now is whether Chuan Grove and Thomson Reserve capture it or price themselves out of it.
🏗️ Developers' July Sales Rebound Sharply
- Developers sold 731 new private homes in July 2026, up 368.8% month-on-month from June's 156-unit print — the weakest month since February 2024, driven by a school-holiday launch lull. New project launches drove the recovery, a pattern consistent with URA's Q2 2026 tally of 2,141 units sold (excluding ECs) over the full quarter.
- The rebound suggests buyers were waiting for stock rather than pulling back from the market entirely — a distinction that matters heading into 2H 2026, when Chuan Grove Residences and Thomson Reserve both queue up to test whether that demand holds at current pricing.
🏘️ HDB-Private Price Gap Becomes Upgraders' Real Problem
- HDB resale prices are declining — the Resale Price Index fell 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2026, a second consecutive quarterly drop — even as private residential prices keep climbing. Stacked Homes flags this widening gap as the bigger issue for upgraders: sellers are realising less from their flat sale just as the private homes they're buying into cost more.
- OCR condos remain propped up by upgrader demand despite the squeeze, but the math is getting tighter — budget conversations with HDB-upgrader clients need to start well before a listing goes on the market, not after an offer is in hand.
📊 Grange Residences Sets New $3,786 psf Record
- A 4-bedroom unit at Grange Residences in District 10 sold for $10.8 million ($3,786 psf), a new project record. Other notable deals this week: a Leedon Residence 5-bedder went for $14.3 million ($3,040 psf, a $3.75 million profit for the seller), and a Raffles Park GCB on Oriole Crescent changed hands at $23.8 million ($1,955 psf).
- Dunearn House led new-launch transaction counts with 10 deals this week, ahead of The Continuum and Coastal Cabana — a reminder that transaction volume at the top of the market doesn't always track with what's moving fastest on the ground.
🏦 Financing & Rates
- 3M compounded SORA holds at 1.12%, unchanged since 7 August; 1M SORA sits at 1.10%. Floating-rate home loans continue to price around 1.9% p.a. all-in — no new signal for buyers timing a rate lock this week.
🔭 What I'm watching
- Whether Chuan Grove and Thomson Reserve's eventual pricing captures July's pent-up demand or tests its limits — the next few weeks of preview activity will tell us which.
- Whether the HDB-private price gap keeps widening into Q3 — if it does, expect more upgraders to delay their sale-and-buy timeline rather than compress it.