Kenny's Take
This week's developer results are the clearest recovery signal we've had all year — CDL's net income tripled, CapitaLand Investment grew 14%, and PropNex posted a record profit, all in the same week. That's three very different businesses — developer, fund manager, agency — all pointing the same direction, which is harder to dismiss than any single company's number. At the same time, HDB's resale index just posted its second straight quarterly decline, even as million-dollar flat sales hit a record 491 in Q2 — so if you're planning a sell-one-buy-one, don't read the topline HDB numbers as weakness across the board; the market is bifurcating by price tier, not softening uniformly. For upgraders, that combination — private-market confidence building while HDB resale cools at the median — is exactly the kind of window that's been used to lock in a private purchase before the next launch cycle reprices it. Watch where the next few launches get priced; that's where developer confidence will actually show up.
🏢 Developer Earnings Signal a Recovery
- City Developments' first-half 2026 net income tripled to $302 million, its strongest half in years, driven largely by Singapore residential sales — Newport Residences alone sold 57% of units on its launch weekend at an average of $3,200 psf. The stock jumped as much as 11% on the news, its biggest one-day move since April 2020.
- CapitaLand Investment posted profit up 14% year-on-year to $327 million for the six months to 30 June, with fee income from private and listed funds up 20% and operating profit up 13% — management called it the strongest improvement in five years. The group also raised $3.7 billion in new capital in H1, up 50% on a year earlier.
- Real estate agency PropNex delivered a record net profit of $42.3 million, more than double the year-ago period, as revenue jumped 73.3% to $598.9 million on a 7% rise in sales and leasing transactions. A record interim dividend of 5 cents a share follows — three of the market's biggest names all posting stronger numbers in the same week is a real confidence signal, not a coincidence.
🏘️ HDB — A Two-Speed Resale Market
- HDB's Resale Price Index fell 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2026 — the second consecutive quarterly decline after Q1's 0.1% dip, bringing the cumulative first-half move to -0.4%, a sharp reversal from +2.5% over the same period in 2025.
- Yet a record 491 HDB resale flats crossed the $1 million mark in Q2 2026, beating the previous quarterly high of 480 set in Q3 2025 — and 1,151 flats have now hit seven figures year-to-date as of 12 August. Prices are softening in aggregate while the top end of the resale market keeps setting records — two different stories happening inside the same index.
🏦 Financing & Rates
- 3M compounded SORA holds at 1.12%, unchanged since 7 August; 1M SORA sits at 1.10%. Effective floating-rate home loans continue to price around 1.9% p.a. all-in — no new signal for buyers weighing financing timing this week.
🔭 What I'm watching
- Whether CDL, CapitaLand and PropNex's stronger H1 numbers translate into more aggressive launch activity in 2H 2026 — developer confidence usually shows up in land bids and pricing before it shows up in marketing.
- The gap between HDB's softening RPI and its record million-dollar transaction count — if that gap widens further, it's the clearest sign yet the resale market is splitting by price tier, not moving as one.