Kenny's Take
The official Q2 2026 data confirms what the booking queues have been signalling: the private market is telling two different stories depending on where you look. CCR private homes rose 1.8% — the fastest of any segment — while RCR and OCR both edged lower. Landed rebounded 2.5%. Meanwhile, HDB resale prices dipped 0.3% for the second straight quarter, but the nuance matters: transaction volumes actually rose, and million-dollar flat sales hit a quarterly record at 491 deals. The upgrader equity story is intact — HDB owners are still transacting, prices are pausing rather than retreating. June's 156 new private home sales and zero new launches was a calendar effect, not a demand collapse; July opened with LGR's 54% take-up and Dunearn House's booking day. The CCR +1.8% figure won't feel fully real until a credible project confirms or challenges it at price. Dunearn House's Day 1 take-up result, expected this week, is that calibration test.
🏗️ Dunearn House: Booking Day Completed — Verdict Expected This Week
- Dunearn House (380 units, District 11, Bukit Timah Turf City) held its booking day on 25 July 2026. The project, jointly developed by Frasers Property, CSC Land Group, and Sekisui House, priced units at an average of $2,799 psf — 2BR from $1.475M (527–678 sq ft), 3BR from $2.597M (872–1,001 sq ft), and 4BR from $3.588M (1,184–1,378 sq ft). Official take-up data is expected from the developer within 24–48 hours of booking day.
- Demand indicators heading in were strong: the 10–12 July preview weekend drew 5,900 visitors, and the EOI ballot closed on 22 July. This is consistent with other July launches — Lentor Gardens Residences achieved 54% take-up after comparable pre-booking activity; LyndenWoods achieved 94.5% earlier in the month. Dunearn House targets a different buyer segment and price bracket, but the preview-to-ballot conversion rate will determine whether the CCR premium holds.
- Why this matters beyond the project: Dunearn House is the first private residential launch in Bukit Timah Turf City in over 33 years, and the first CCR non-landed condo launch since Q2 2026 confirmed that CCR was the only segment of the private market to post positive QoQ growth (+1.8%). A Day 1 take-up above 50% would validate that CCR buyer appetite is demand-led at $2,799 psf; sub-30% would signal that the Q2 data point was supply-driven rather than buyer-driven. The result sets the pricing benchmark for every subsequent CCR launch in H2.
📊 Official Q2 2026 Data: The Two-Speed Market Is Confirmed
- URA's official Q2 2026 private residential data confirms the divergence that flash estimates flagged: CCR +1.8% QoQ (up from +0.6% in Q1), RCR −1.2% QoQ (from +0.8%), OCR −0.1% QoQ (from +2.2%). The overall private non-landed index rose just +0.5% QoQ — the slowest quarter in seven quarters. Landed homes rebounded +2.5% QoQ, reversing Q1's −0.4% dip on activity in the Good Class Bungalow and semi-detached segments.
- Transaction volumes: New home sales reached 2,141 units in Q2 (+6.4% QoQ from 2,013 in Q1); resale came in at 3,813 units. The private pipeline sits at approximately 32,000 unsold units expected to launch over the next two years — the 2H2026 GLS confirmed list (9 sites, ~4,745 residential units) is the government's calibrated supply response. The Town Hall Link white site in Jurong Lake District (3.72 ha, ~1,200 units, 40,000+ sq m office) is part of this 2H tranche.
- HDB resale: prices fell −0.3% QoQ in Q2 — the second consecutive quarterly decline, the first back-to-back dip since Q2 2019. Volumes bucked the trend: 6,396 transactions, up 1.8% QoQ. This divergence (more buyers transacting at modestly lower prices) points to a market recalibrating on value rather than retreating on demand.
🏘️ Million-Dollar HDB Flats: 491 in Q2, 1,050 for 2026 YTD
- 491 million-dollar HDB resale flats transacted in Q2 2026 — up 19.5% from Q1 (411 deals) and the highest quarterly count on record. The 2026 running total hit 1,050 deals by mid-July, putting the year on pace to exceed 2025's full-year record. Million-dollar HDB sales represented 7.7% of all Q2 resale activity — up from 6.4% in Q1.
- Towns with a $1M median for 4-room flats in Q2: Central Area, Queenstown, and Toa Payoh. The concentration in mature central estates reflects a structural trend: 13,480 HDB flats reach their Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) in 2026, mainly from Punggol, Queenstown, and Tampines. This is near the peak of the post-2021 MOP supply surge, and the most valuable cohort — mature-estate 4-room and 5-room holders — is actively cashing out.
- What this means for upgraders: HDB median prices in non-mature estates (e.g., 4-room in Jurong West at approximately $530,000) continue to build balance sheets for buyers looking to cross into the private market. The pipeline of buyers with substantial HDB equity — whether from resale gains or CPF proceeds — is the structural foundation for OCR new launch demand through 2026 and 2027.
📉 June New Condo Sales: 156 Units, Zero New Launches
- Developer sales of new private homes in June 2026 fell to 156 units (excluding ECs) — down 65.1% month-on-month from May's 447 units and 42.6% year-on-year. This is the lowest monthly volume since February 2024. More notably, zero new residential projects launched in June — the first month without a new project launch since 2007.
- This is a calendar effect, not a demand signal. Developers front-loaded launches into Q2 (LyndenWoods in May, Pinery Residences in April) and deliberately held the highest-profile projects — LGR on 18 July and Dunearn House on 25 July — for the school-holiday window. The 1H2026 total of 4,164 new private homes sold is −9.2% vs 1H2025, but the H2 pipeline is substantially heavier. July's results will be the first clean read of where underlying demand sits heading into Q3.
- EC market: 28 executive condominium units sold in June, with Coastal Cabana EC accounting for 21 units ($1,836 psf median). Separately, a 4-bedroom unit at The Peak (District 5, near Kent Ridge Park) set a new D5 resale profit record: sold for $8.5M ($1,539 psf), generating a capital gain of $5.4M (+174%) over 21 years of holding — a reminder that OCR boutique projects in established precincts can compound substantially.
💰 Rates + 🔭 What I'm Watching
- 3-month compounded SORA: approximately 1.13% (mid-July 2026). Best floating packages are tracking SORA + 0.20–0.25%, putting effective rates around 1.33–1.38% all-in. Fixed-rate packages from major banks remain in the 1.40–1.70% p.a. range. For a $1.5M home loan at 1.33% over 30 years, the monthly repayment is approximately $4,900 — versus $7,400 at the 2023 rate peak. The financing tailwind is the structural backdrop for every launch in the July–September window.
- Watching this week: Dunearn House Day 1 take-up announcement. The official take-up figure from Frasers Property is the H2 CCR benchmark. Watch for: total units sold, which unit types cleared fastest (3BR compact is the typical bellwether), and whether the 4BR tier showed selective demand. Watching for Q3: Thomson Reserve (District 20, Upper Thomson) — 1,268 units from UOL Group, SingLand, and CapitaLand Development; preview expected September/October at an indicative $2,206–$2,830 psf range. As the first large-scale RCR-border launch post-Dunearn House results, its pricing will be calibrated directly against July's data.