Kenny's Take
Today is the eve of Dunearn House's booking day — and it may be the single most important data point for CCR in the second half of 2026. The segment was the only part of the private market to gain ground in Q2 (+2.0% QoQ), while RCR and OCR dipped. Now buyers have to put their cheques where the data is. Five thousand nine hundred preview visitors over the weekend of 10–12 July suggests the pent-up demand is real. At $2,799 psf from the low end — 2BR from $1.475M — Dunearn House is priced at a meaningful discount to comparable CCR projects along the river valley. What LGR taught us this week is that when the value case is clear — AMK upgraders at $2,350 psf with land cost already priced in — buyers show up even when the broader market is cautious. Dunearn House is a different buyer profile and a different wallet size, but the logic is the same: is the premium to OCR justified? With SORA at 1.13%, the financing tailwind is real. We'll know the answer by tomorrow evening.
🏗️ Dunearn House Opens Bookings Friday — CCR Litmus Test
- Dunearn House (380 units, D11 Bukit Timah Turf City) opens sales bookings on Friday 25 July, with 2BR units priced from $1.475M ($2,799 psf avg). The project is a joint venture by Frasers Property, CSC Land Group, and Sekisui House — the same Frasers-led JV that clinched the $2.128B Bayshore Drive GLS site earlier this month.
- The 10–12 July preview weekend drew 5,900 visitors, and the EOI ballot closed on 22 July. This level of preview traffic — comparable to LyndenWoods (94.5% Day 1) and LGR (54%) earlier in the month — suggests buyer intent is genuine, not just browsing.
- Why it matters: Dunearn House is the first private residential project in Bukit Timah Turf City in over 33 years, and the first CCR non-landed condo launch since CCR posted +2.0% QoQ in Q2 2026 — the only region of the private market to gain ground. At $2,799 psf, it sits at a relative discount to projects along the river valley corridor ($3,200–$3,500 psf range). The 3BR is priced from $2.597M, targeting a buyer upgrading from a $1.5M–$2M executive condo or large OCR unit.
- What to note: Nearest MRT is Sixth Avenue (D/T line), approximately 4 minutes on foot. A future Cross Island Line (CRL) station is planned within the Turf City estate, though no timeline has been confirmed. Buyers are taking a position on both the precinct and the long-term CRL optionality.
📊 LGR Post-Booking: AMK HDB Upgraders Led the 54% Take-Up
- With Lentor Gardens Residences' 18 July booking day now settled, the buyer profile is clearer: HDB upgraders from Ang Mo Kio dominated demand, alongside landed estate right-sizers and first-time private buyers. This confirms the 'proximity catchment' thesis — new launches draw heavily from the surrounding HDB estates when quantum and psf align.
- By unit type: 3BR compact units sold out on booking day; 2BR premium units reached 93% take-up. The 4BR and larger premium units saw more selective demand, consistent with buyers optimising for quantum rather than size.
- The Lentor Hills cluster has now absorbed 99.2% of all units across 7 projects (2,929 of 2,954 units). At $920 psf land cost ppr (the lowest in the cluster), LGR had the most favourable unit economics — and the 54% (vs LyndenWoods' 94.5%) reflects that buyers are selective on value even within the same corridor, not that demand is absent.
🏘️ HDB Record Week: Geylang Joins the Million-Dollar Club
- A 4-room flat at 82B Circuit Road, MacPherson Spring (Geylang, D14) transacted at $1.1M in July 2026 — a new sub-market record for Geylang, breaking the previous D14 high despite the unit being on a lower floor. Notably, the buyer paid above valuation.
- Why it matters: Geylang has historically been the most affordably priced mature estate in the central region. Million-dollar HDB flats are no longer confined to Bishan, Queenstown, or Toa Payoh. As this band expands into D14, upgrader equity from Geylang and MacPherson HDB estates is building — providing the balance sheet for the next wave of private condo upgrades.
- Earlier in the week (18 Jul): a Queenstown 2-room flat sold for $696,000 — a new national record for the flat type. PropNex data notes most million-dollar HDB buyers in 2025 paid no COV, meaning valuations are catching up with transaction prices rather than buyers paying premiums over valuation.
💰 Rates: SORA Holds — Financing Window Remains Favourable
- 3-month compounded SORA: 1.13% (mid-July 2026). Best floating mortgage packages are SORA + 0.20% ≈ 1.33% all-in. Fixed-rate packages remain in the 1.40–1.70% p.a. range.
- A $1.5M home loan at 1.33% all-in costs approximately $4,400–$4,800/month — versus $6,200–$6,500 at the 2023 rate peak. The monthly saving of $1,500–$2,100 is the equivalent of roughly 1.5 years of CPF top-up rebates.
- Timing implication: For buyers watching tomorrow's Dunearn House results, current rates mean a $1.5M loan (80% LTV on a $1.875M unit) carries a manageable monthly outlay. The 75% LTV cap on private property applies to a first purchase; buyers with existing mortgages face the 45% LTV cap — check your position before committing.
🔭 What I'm watching
- Dunearn House Day 1 result (25 Jul): Sub-two-week 50%+ take-up signals CCR buyer appetite is real at $2,799 psf. Below 30% would suggest the price point needs to reset or units need repackaging. This is the H2 CCR benchmark.
- Thomson Reserve (D20, Upper Thomson): The next large-scale OCR/RCR launch is expected in September–October 2026. The LGR buyer profile and prevailing SORA will both inform whether AMK-corridor demand can sustain at the expected $2,450–$2,600 psf range.