Kenny's Take
The Q2 URA data tells you exactly where to look right now: landed homes delivered a record-high index while non-landed — particularly in the RCR — is softening. This isn't a crash; it's the market sorting itself by segment. For HDB upgraders watching their equity, the million-dollar flat trend in June (188 transactions, a new monthly record) shows that the value you've built is real. The next 5 days before Lentor Gardens' booking are the last window to do your sums on D26 before the crowd decides the narrative. And keep an eye on Tuesday — the Bayshore Drive tender result will tell us what developers think D16 is worth for the next decade.
📊 Q2 2026 Prices: Landed at Record, Non-Landed Cools
- URA's Q2 2026 flash estimates show overall private residential prices rose +0.5% — slower than the +0.9% gain in Q1. The headline masks a sharp divergence by segment.
- Landed properties rose +2.6% in Q2, reaching a new index record high. Supply remains structurally constrained — landed plots are not being released into the GLS pipeline at scale — which keeps this segment firm even as sentiment moderates elsewhere.
- Non-landed homes edged up just +0.1% for the quarter. The RCR (city fringe) sub-segment actually fell 1.4% — the first meaningful dip in that corridor in some time. Buyers in the RCR now have more negotiating room than at any point in the past two years.
- What this means for buyers: OCR and RCR new launches are no longer selling themselves on momentum. Developers are working harder to price competitively. If you're looking at mass-market condos, Q3 may offer better entry conditions than Q1 did.
🏗️ Bayshore Drive GLS — $2B Tender Closes Tuesday
- One of 2026's largest Government Land Sales tenders — a 616,506 sq ft mixed-use site at Bayshore Drive — closes this Tuesday, 15 July at 12pm. Market watchers expect top bids of $1.9B–$2.1B.
- The site is directly integrated with the upcoming Bedok South MRT station (Thomson-East Coast Line), includes a bus interchange, and can yield up to 1,280 residential units alongside commercial space.
- This result will set the pricing benchmark for the entire D16 Bayshore corridor — a stretch that has been repositioning steadily with Vela Bay (72% sold Day 1 in April) already anchoring the neighbourhood. A strong bid signals developer confidence in the area's long-term trajectory.
- 🔭 Watch: If the winning bid exceeds $1,900 psf ppr, expect Bayshore-area launch prices to push firmly above $2,500 psf — a meaningful repricing of the east-coast waterfront market.
🏘️ HDB: 188 Million-Dollar Flats in June — A New Monthly Record
- June 2026 saw 188 HDB resale flats transact at $1 million or above — the highest monthly count on record, up from 166 in May. The trend is sustained, not a one-off spike.
- The data point matters for upgraders: if you're holding a mature-estate flat, your equity position is stronger than you may realise. A well-located 4- or 5-room flat in Bishan, Dawson, or Queenstown today has real capital to deploy in the new launch market.
- Recent milestones contextualise the trend: SkyOasis @ Dawson's first 5-room resale at $1.39M (July 2026), Tampines executive flat setting a town record at $1.24M, and the all-time HDB record at Henderson Road reaching $1.728M (April 2026).
- CCR luxury adds another layer: Business Times reports that prime CCR home sales jumped almost 25% year-on-year in H1 2026, driven by new citizens and PRs. High-net-worth demand is filling the top of the market even as the mid-market takes a breather.
🏙️ Lentor Gardens Residences — Booking Opens Friday 18 Jul
- Kingsford's 499-unit Lentor Gardens Residences opens for booking this Friday, 18 July. The preview drew 5,000+ visitors, with an average guide price of approximately $2,350 psf.
- Context within the Lentor cluster: Lentor Mansion achieved $2,272 average and Hillock Green $2,147 — both built on higher land cost than LGR (~$920 psf ppr, the lowest in the cluster). That land-cost differential gives the developer pricing headroom to be competitive without taking losses.
- The cluster dynamic favours buyers who can move now: with LyndenWoods 94.5% sold last Saturday and Dunearn House booking set for 25 July, the new-launch pipeline is absorbing demand quickly. Buyers waiting for a clear 'bottom' may find fewer options in Q3.