Kenny's Take
Dunearn House prices in below the pre-launch consensus of $2,900–3,100 psf at $2,799 psf entry, which means preview buyers are getting the developer's sharpest stack selection before the best units go. Paired with Lentor Gardens Residences opening booking on 18 July at $2,350 psf in OCR, buyers now have two distinct choices within a 10-day window: a D11 CCR school-belt play or an OCR D26 upgrader entry. On the HDB side, two consecutive quarters of resale price softness — the first back-to-back dip since 2019 — widen the gap between exit price and new launch cost; anyone sitting on a MOP-eligible flat should model the numbers now, not in six months. The HDB data also tells us this is not a broad correction: 7.8% of Q2 deals crossed $1 million, a record share — the market is bifurcating between premium locations and the broad index.
🏗️ New Launches
- Dunearn House opens its preview on 10 July, bringing private residential back to Bukit Timah's Turf City precinct for the first time in more than three decades. Frasers Property, Sekisui House and CSC Land have priced the 380-unit development from $2,799 psf — entry from $1.475M for a 2-bedroom, with 3-bedrooms from around $2.1M. The pricing came in below the pre-launch analyst range of $2,900–3,100 psf, giving preview buyers room before stack selection tightens. Location advantages include direct access to Sixth Ave MRT (Downtown Line), proximity to Hwa Chong Institution, National Junior College and Nanyang Primary, and long-term upside from the Turf City master plan transformation into a mixed-use precinct.
- Lentor Gardens Residences (D26, 502 units, Kingsford) opens for booking on 18 July 2026 — nine days from today. The average price of $2,350 psf came in above the $2,100–2,250 psf pre-launch guidance after more than 5,000 visitors toured the showflat over the 4–5 July preview weekend. Entry is from $1.5M for a 2-bedroom. Of note: Kingsford acquired this site at $920 psf ppr — the lowest land cost in the Lentor cluster — yet has priced it at the top of the cluster range outside of Lentor Modern. Booking day take-up on 18 July will be the clearest signal yet of whether OCR upgrader demand can sustain at these levels through H2 2026.
- 🔭 What I'm watching — Lentor Gardens booking day (18 Jul) is the H2 OCR litmus test. Dunearn House take-up data from the 10 Jul preview will also set the tone for D11 CCR pricing confidence going into Thomson Reserve's Q3 launch.
🏘️ HDB Market
- HDB resale prices fell –0.3% in Q2 2026 — the second consecutive quarterly decline and the first back-to-back dip since 2019. Resale volume dropped to 6,268 transactions, down 10.2% from Q1's 6,982. Stacked Homes analysis points to a structural shift: younger buyers are increasingly choosing newer resale flats, which carry lower absolute prices, pulling down the overall median even as headline individual transactions remain elevated.
- The million-dollar flat story continues in the other direction: approximately 490 flats above $1 million transacted in Q2, representing 7.8% of all resale deals — the highest share on record. This bifurcation (broad index soft, premium end firm) is the key takeaway for upgraders: HDB exit prices are not collapsing, but pricing power is concentrated in well-located larger units. For upgraders in mature estates with MOP-eligible flats, the exit valuation environment remains workable — the window has not closed.
📋 Policy
- URA has issued guidance to developers on anti-money laundering checks, urging a 'risk-proportionate' approach. Under the clarification, verifying sources of wealth and funds is not required for most homebuyers — only for higher-risk customer profiles. This reduces compliance friction for the vast majority of genuine residential transactions and is a practical signal that regulators are calibrating AML frameworks to transaction risk rather than applying blanket requirements.
💰 Rates
- 3M SORA ~1.14% — near a four-year low. Best floating mortgage packages are running approximately 1.28–1.35% all-in. On a $1M loan over 25 years, that translates to roughly $3,900/month, versus $4,400+ at the 2024 peak rate. The affordability backdrop remains supportive for buyers entering at new launches in H2.