Kenny's Take
The market is not cooling — it is rotating. HDB resale has now slipped two quarters in a row, the first time in about seven years, while private prices are still climbing and landed just hit a record high. If you own an HDB flat past MOP and plan to upgrade, understand what this means: your sell-side is softening while your buy-side firms up. The gap moves against you every quarter you wait. Run your numbers now, not later.
📊 Private prices up, but slower — +0.5% in Q2
- URA flash estimates released 1 July show private residential prices rose 0.5% in Q2 2026, easing from +0.9% in Q1.
- Under the surface the picture diverges: non-landed dipped 0.1%, the city-fringe (RCR) fell 1.4%, while landed jumped 2.6% to a record high.
- Roughly 5,420 private homes changed hands — steady against Q1 and about 4.5% higher than a year ago. Volume is holding; the market is rotating, not retreating.
🏘️ HDB resale falls a second straight quarter
- HDB's flash estimate shows the Resale Price Index down 0.3% in Q2 after a 0.1% dip in Q1 — two consecutive declines, something the market has not seen in about seven years.
- Transactions fell 10.2% to 6,268 flats. The softening looks supply-led: the MOP wave nearly doubles to about 13,480 flats this year, and BTO supply keeps giving buyers options.
- Yet around 490 flats crossed the million-dollar mark — 7.8% of all deals, the highest share on record. Well-located flats still exit at strong prices; it is the broad market that is cooling.
🏗️ Lentor Gardens Residences previews this Saturday
- 499 units in District 26 by Kingsford. Preview runs 4–14 July, booking day 18 July, TOP expected Q1 2029.
- Land cost of $920 psf ppr is the lowest in the Lentor cluster, with pricing guided around $2,100–$2,250 psf — positioned as the affordability play of the precinct.
- This weekend is the clearest test of suburban (OCR) demand in the second half of 2026. Watch the preview crowd and the booking-day take-up rate.
💰 Rates staying friendly
- SORA is holding near its floor — 3-month compounded at about 1.08% (MAS, 1 July).
- Floating packages start around 1.28% all-in. On a $1M loan over 25 years that is roughly $3,900 a month, a very different affordability picture from the 2024 peak above 3.5%.
🔭 What I'm watching
- Lentor Gardens' booking-day numbers on 18 July — a strong showing confirms the upgrader wave is intact and OCR pricing has room; a weak one signals buyers are getting selective on quantum.